Weibull Analysis · Actuarial Infrastructure Modeling

When will your infrastructure fail?

Enter your asset portfolio. This tool applies Weibull probability distributions — the same statistical model used by insurance actuaries and infrastructure engineers — to project failure probability across your system over the next 50 years.

Failure parameters derived from ASCE 2025 Infrastructure Report Card, Utah State University Water Main Break Rate Study (2023), and Water Research Foundation data.

$625B · National water infrastructure need (EPA 2023)

20% · Mains beyond useful life (ASCE)

28.6 · Cast iron breaks/100mi/year

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Overview

Asset Input

Results

Step 2 — Enter Your Portfolio

Define Your Asset Segments

Add each distinct group of infrastructure by material and age. You can add up to 8 segments representing different pipe vintages, materials, or service zones.

Budget & Threshold Parameters (Optional)

Annual Replacement Budget ($M/year)

Leave blank to skip budget analysis

Replacement Cost per Mile ($M)

National average: $1.5M/mile

Failure Probability Threshold (%)

Industry standard trigger: 15%

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Overview

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Asset Input

Results

Weibull Analysis Results

Your Infrastructure Risk Profile

Probability estimates derived from peer-reviewed Weibull parameters. Current year analysis as of .

Highest Risk Segment

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Miles Exceeding Threshold Today

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Est. Replacement Cost — At-Risk

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Based on input cost/mile

Projected Funding Gap (10yr)

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Enter budget to calculate

Projected Failure Probability by Asset Class

Weibull CDF curves over 50-year horizon — F(t) = 1 − exp(−(t/η)^β)

Current Failure Probability by Segment

System risk profile — today's probability of failure

Replacement Urgency Timeline

When each segment crosses the failure threshold

Segment	Current Prob.	Status	Threshold Crossing

Engineering Summary

Important Disclaimer

This tool provides probabilistic estimates for planning and educational purposes only. Weibull parameters are derived from aggregate industry data and may not reflect the specific condition, soil type, installation quality, or operating pressure of your system's assets. Results do not constitute a professional engineering assessment and should not be the sole basis for capital investment decisions. Asset Management Professionals makes no warranties regarding the accuracy of failure probability estimates for any specific utility system. Consult a licensed professional engineer for site-specific analysis. Failure rate benchmarks sourced from Utah State University (2023), ASCE Infrastructure Report Card (2025), and Water Research Foundation publications.

This analysis is a starting point.

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